Archive for February, 2026

CALCULATED MOON BIRTHS

February 17, 2026

Why Determining the Beginning and End of Ramadan by Calculated Crescent-Visibility is Perfectly Legitimate according to the Shari’ah.

Dr Usama Hasan

Fellow, Royal Astronomical Society (UK)

1st Ramadan 1447 H

19th February 2026 CE

THE ZUHAL ESSAY SERIES: NO. 1

Contents

  1. The Plain Truth About This Matter 2
  2. The Qur’anic Assertion: The Sun and The Moon are by Calculation { الشَّمْسُ والقَمَرُ بحُسْبانٍ } 4

2.1 Imam Tabari’s Explanation (Tafsir) of this verse 4

  1. Classical Muslim Jurists Who Allowed Calculation For Moonsighting 7

3.1 Nawawi’s commentary on “If it is obscured by cloud, then determine for it.” 7
3.2 Ibn ‘Arabi supported the use of calculations 7
3.3 Ibn Daqiq al-‘Id supported the use of calculations 8
3.4 Taqi al-Din al-Subki supported the use of calculations 8
3.5 Ibn Taymiyyah rejected calculations because they could never be accurate enough 8
3.6 Ibn Hajar al-‘Asqalani’s discussion, quoting multiple authorities 8
3.7 Shaykh Ahmad Shakir 11

4 Objections to Calculations that give the same result as Moonsighting 12

4.1 Hilal means a public matter, from its name 12
4.2 The Prophet ﷺ said: We are an unlettered (ummi) nation: we do not calculate or write 13
4.3 “Witnessing the month” can only be done via seeing the hilal 13
4.4 “Enter houses from their doors” 13
4.5 Calculations are only “in someone’s head” 14

5 A Brief History of Moonsighting Calculations 14

5.1 Medieval and modern methods 14
5.2 Modern methods 16
5.3 Modern prediction criteria 16
5.4 HMNAO’s method: the Yallop Criterion 16
5.5 Crescent-visibility curves 17
5.6 World-record crescent sightings: naked-eye, telescope & CCD-imaging 18

6 Calculations for Islamic Prayer Times, but not for Crescent-Sighting? 18

Table of Figures
Figure 1: Calculating Crescent Visibility 12

Figure 2: Crescent-visibility curves for Ramadan 1429 H / 2007 CE 14

NB:

Classical Muslim Jurists Who Allowed Calculation For Moonsighting

  1. Mutarrif bin ‘Abdullah Ibn al-Shikhkhir (d. 95 H). (Disputed by Ibn ‘Abdul Barr)
  2. Imam Shafi’i (150-204 H), according to Ibn Khuwayz Mandad. (Disputed)
  3. Ibn Qutaybah (213-276 H), a Hadith expert
  4. Ibn Surayj (249-306 H), a leading Shafi’i jurist
  5. Muhyi l-Din Ibn ‘Arabi (558-638 H), an independent jurist
  6. Ibn Daqiq al-‘Id (625-702 H), a leading Maliki & Shafi’i jurist
  7. Taqi al-Din al-Subki (683-756 H), a leading Shafi’i jurist
  8. The Isma’ilis
  9. “Others”
  10. Shaykh Ahmad Shakir (1309-1377 H), a leading Salafi jurist and Hadith expert

When will Ramadan & Eid al-Fitr be in 1447 H (2026 CE) ?

February 16, 2026

Bismillah. Based on the accurate astronomical calculations & the Odeh Criterion (that have proven to be over 99% accurate based on 20+ years of monthly observations), available online for Ramadan 1447 H (2026 CE) & Shawwal 1447 H (2026 CE), we can state the following:

  1. The geocentric conjunction (Geocentric New Moon) just before Ramadan will occur on Tuesday 17th February 2026 at 12:01 UT, God-willing, i.e. just after midday GMT.
  2. The Ramadan new crescent moon (hilaal) will not be visible from anywhere in the world on Tuesday 17th February 2026, with the exception of telescope-only sightings from California & Alaska:


  3. The Ramadan new crescent moon (hilaal) will be easily visible after sunset on Wednesday 18th February 2026 from most of Europe, Africa, North America & South America, as well as West Asia & South Asia. (Telescopes, or perfect visibility conditions for naked-eye sighting, will be required for East Asia & Australasia.)


  4. Accordingly, an appropriate date for the 1st day of Ramadan 1447 H worldwide is Thursday 19th February 2026 CE (since the day begins after the night before, when the hilaal is seen after sunset).
  5. The geocentric conjunction (Geocentric New Moon) just before Shawwal will occur on Thursday 19th March 2026 at 01:23 UT, God-willing, i.e. 83 minutes after midnight GMT.
  6. The Shawwal new crescent moon (hilaal) will be easily-visible by naked-eye after sunset on Thursday 19th March 2026 from North America, and via telescope and/or perfect naked-eye visibility conditions across most of Europe, Africa & South America, as well as West Asia & Central Asia, and parts of South Asia (Pakistan & Afghanistan). In these countries, an appropriate date for Eid al-Fitr (1st Shawwal 1447 H) is Friday 20th March 2026 CE, giving a 29-day Ramadan:


  7. The Shawwal new crescent moon (hilaal) will be easily-visible by naked-eye after sunset on Friday 20th March 2026 from the rest of the world, including southern areas of South America, Southern Africa, the rest of South Asia (India eastwards), South-East Asia, East Asia & Australasia. In these countries, an appropriate date for Eid al-Fitr (1st Shawwal 1447 H) is Saturday 21st March 2026 CE, giving a 30-day Ramadan:


  8. SUMMARY FOR THE UK, by sighting of the new crescent moon:

    1st day of Ramadan 1447 H = Thursday 19th February 2026 CE

    Ramadan will have 29 days, in sha’ Allah (God-willing).

    Eid al-Fitr (1st day of Shawwal 1447 H) = Friday 20th March 2026 CE

  9. May Allah shower the blessings of Ramadan & Eid upon us all!


    (Imam Dr) Usama Hasan
    Fellow of the Royal Astronomical Society
    London, UK

    24th Rajab 1447 H ~ 13th January 2026 CE